The International Data Corporation’s (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Forecast gives analysis of the worldwide mobile phone market. In the most recent forecast, they made several observations about the mobile phone market in general, and how each of the leading operating systems are expected to fare over the next few years. Included in those observations was the estimated rapid growth of Windows Phone.
Regarding the overall growth of smartphones, IDC Senior Analyst, Kevin Restivo, had this to say: “The smartphone parade won’t be as lively this year as it has been in past. The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion. Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7.”
With Windows Phone being included as one of the “triumvirate” of mobile operating systems, it’s apparent that the industry has taken notice of Microsoft’s little phone OS. It is no longer a question of the platform’s survival. IDC analysts believe that it will do more than survive: it will flourish. Now the question about Microsoft’s phone OS is just where its position will be in the market. If we ask IDC, that place will be right behind Android and above iOS by 2016.
“Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia’s strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia’s foothold in emerging markets is maintained.”
This only puts Windows Phone .2% above iOS, so even if this does come to fruition, it’s not a trouncing of the competition. Instead, these predictions mainly indicate that industry experts expect Windows Phone to be competitive.
Fans of Windows Phone will notice that IDC is referring to Microsoft’s OS as Windows Phone 7, even though we know that Windows Phone 8 is going to be rolling out later this year. Could this mean that they are making their predictions based on verified current information, and not based on what may happen if Microsoft ties Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8 together? If that’s the case, the actual growth of Windows Phone could even surpass these estimates.
The future looks bright for Windows Phone. Do you believe that IDC has this right? Are they being too optimistic, or perhaps even not optimistic enough?